The Hindu Businessline | 14 April 2026
India may go slow on trade deal till US mid-term polls
By Amiti Sen
India is likely to stall for time in its trade negotiations with the US when negotiators meet in Washington soon, as it wants the upcoming US mid-term elections to provide clarity on the American legislative landscape, sources have said.
Following the US Supreme Court’s invalidation of reciprocal taxes on February 20, 2026, the current 10 per cent global tariffs imposed by the Trump administration for a 90-day period have become a temporary floor that India does not want to negotiate with until the “end game” numbers are settled.
“India would want to continue to talk, but obviously it needs to know where the US stands before it gives anything. We will not know that before the mid-term elections in November as the fate of tariffs is tied to how the Trump regime fares,” a source explained.
Eyes on Mid-term poll
The mid-term elections, held at the midpoint of a President’s term, are crucial as they could lead to a significant shift in the composition of Congress. Currently, all 435 seats in the US House of Representatives and about a third of the 100 seats in the US Senate are up for vote on November 3, 2026. If Democrats take the House, the President’s ability to pass major legislation, including sweeping tax and tariff reforms, would largely come to a halt.
The US, however, wants India back at the negotiating table. US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor recently underlined in a social media post that a trade deal between the two has been previously agreed to, noting that an Indian delegation is expected in Washington later this month. Gor was referring to the preliminary India-US interim bilateral trade deal framework announced on February 2, 2026. Under the framework, India had agreed to eliminate or lower tariffs on most industrial goods and agricultural products, while the US agreed to lower reciprocal tariffs to 18 per cent from 25 per cent.
However, India can no longer settle on those specific terms as the landscape shifted dramatically following the Supreme Court’s ruling, which struck down the legal foundation for the broad reciprocal tariffs. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal recently emphasised that India must secure preferential access over its competitors, as was agreed in the initial framework.
Since India only signed a framework and not a final legal treaty, it has no obligation to proceed under the old terms. “If the Trump administration loses ground in the mid-terms, its negotiating position may weaken, allowing New Delhi to push for greater concessions,” the source said.
Plan B
As a ‘Plan B,’ the Trump regime has initiated Section 301 investigations against several countries, including India. While this allows the executive to impose penalties without Congressional approval, it requires the USTR to prove a foreign government is engaging in unfair acts, which is difficult to carry out for each country.
“For now, negotiators will focus on technical discussions regarding non-tariff barriers and digital trade, but New Delhi remains firm on deferring tariff commitments until the US political architecture is settled,” the source said.
